I have been working in the real estate content niche long enough to have seen this cycle repeat itself:
Someone posts a property listing on social media, the comments fill up within minutes, and the top reply is always some version of the same thing: “This price is madness. Who is buying this?”
I get it. I really do.
But after years of watching this market from the inside, studying the numbers, and talking to buyers, my honest answer is this:
It depends entirely on who is asking the question.
Let me break it down properly.
What “Overpriced” Actually Means (And Why We Get It Wrong)
Before we throw the word around, we need to agree on what overpriced actually means.
There are three ways to measure it. You can compare prices against:
- What it actually costs to build the property today.
- What do local people earn?
- What similar properties cost in other major cities?
Most Lagosians are using the second definition when they complain.
The loudest voices online are people earning in naira, and from that lens, the outrage makes complete sense.
But investors and diaspora buyers are using the third definition, and from their lens, Lagos looks like a bargain.
Both groups are right. They are just not having the same conversation.
What Lagos Prices Actually Look Like Right Now
For land, as of early 2026:
- Ikoyi apartments are running between N800,000 and N1.2 million per square meter.
- Victoria Island ranges from N600,000 to N1.4 million per square meter, depending on the property.
- Lekki Phase 1 is more affordable, ranging from N400,000 to N700,000 per square meter.
Budget areas in the mainland start at N95,000 per square meter.
In 2024, residential prices in Lagos rose by 39.5 percent.
- A two-bedroom terrace in Lekki that sold for N45 million in 2022 is now listed at N115 million, to say the least.
- Land in Surulere has moved to N850 million per square meter today.
You can see that the increase over time is not gradual appreciation. We’re looking at vertical spikes.
And, it’s not rocket science. The naira collapsed from roughly N460 to the dollar in 2023 to over N1,600 by 2025.
Add a housing deficit of 3.4 million units, a city approaching 25 million people, and major infrastructure projects transforming previously cheap corridors, and the price pressure was always going to be extreme.
Compared: Property Prices in Lagos Vs Other Major Cities Abroad
For this article, I reached out to several real estate brokers in London, Accra, Nairobi, and Johannesburg.
1. Lagos vs. London
London is the city most Lagosians reach for when making the overpriced argument.
“For this rent in Ikoyi, I could live in London.” I hear this constantly.
The raw numbers are surprising.
- London residential property averages around £7,700 per square meter, which is roughly $10,400.
- A luxury flat in Ikoyi costs $500 to $750 per square meter. The same 120 square meters in Chelsea, London would cost upward of $1.6 million.
- The equivalent in Ikoyi is around $90,000 to $112,000.
Lagos is 15-18 times cheaper per square foot for comparable space.
So, in absolute dollar terms, Lagos is not overpriced relative to London at all.
But here is where the comparison falls apart.
“The average annual salary in London sits around $47,000 to $51,000. Mortgage rates are 4.5 to 6 percent,” Mr. Brandon, who runs a real estate agency in the UK, says.
Lagos’ average formal-sector salaries range from $1,700 to $2,100 per year, and mortgage rates are 20 to 25 percent.
The price-to-income ratio for Lagos is 66.39. For London, it is around 11-13. The math for a naira earner is catastrophic by any standard. The math for a dollar earner is actually quite attractive.
2. Lagos vs Accra
This is the data point that most people in Lagos have never seen, and it is the most revealing in this entire conversation.
I had a brief chat with Mr. Joseph, who also brokers deals in Ghana. He mentioned that, “I mean, there are a lot of things to consider. But generally, Accra’s prime real estate is more expensive than Lagos prime in US dollar terms per square meter”.
- Cantonments and Airport Residential Area in Accra command $1,500 to $2,000 per square meter.
- Ikoyi ranges from $500 to $750 per square meter.
Ghana has a smaller economy, a smaller city, and fewer infrastructure projects than Lagos, yet its prime areas sustain higher dollar prices.
If anything, that makes Lagos prime undervalued on a global scale.
3. Lagos vs Johannesburg
Johannesburg is the most instructive comparison because it is a functioning African commercial capital with a real mortgage market.
Johannesburg’s price-to-income ratio is 3.09. Mortgages run at 9 to 11 percent.
Average annual salaries are $13,500 to $18,900.
A $200,000 budget in Johannesburg gets you a proper 250- to 320-square-meter house in a premium suburb, legally titled, with a mortgage pathway to ownership.
The same $200,000 in Lagos gets you a decent Lekki Phase 1 flat, no mortgage access, and a rental yield of around 1.5 to 2.5 percent if you rent it out.
DO YOU KNOW?
- Johannesburg’s property has barely kept up with inflation over the last decade, delivering about 15 percent cumulative growth. Lagos delivered 80-110% cumulative naira appreciation over the same period.
4. Lagos vs Nairobi
Nairobi sits in the middle.
The price-to-income ratio is 19.80, mortgage rates are 13 to 18 percent, and satellite towns are producing genuine 7 to 9 percent yields with strong occupancy.
“Nairobi’s prime areas are actually experiencing oversupply right now,” says Mr. Makau, a property agent in Kenya. “Kilimani apartments often sit vacant for months.”
Lagos Prime has no such problem because diaspora demand keeps it tight.
Lagos Have Affordability Crisis
The minimum wage in Nigeria is N70,000 per month. Average formal-sector salaries range from N161,000 to N191,000 per month.
A two-bedroom apartment in Yaba, which is not even a prime area, starts at N2.5 million per year.
That means a worker earning the average salary is already spending 45 to 60 percent of gross income on rent before upfront fees and caution deposits. (Some even ask for two years’ rent in advance)
In prime areas like Victoria Island and Ikoyi, the annual rent on a two-bedroom starts at N6 million.
That is more than most formal sector workers earn in a full year.
And remember:
- 70 percent of Lagos residents are renters.
- Over 70 percent of those renters spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing, with many spending 50 to 70 percent.
Our Anger Is Valid, but Sometimes Aimed at the Wrong Target
When Lagosians rage at developers, I understand it. But some of that anger needs to be redirected.
Many developers are not operating on fat margins.
A N5 million annual rent on a Victoria Island property is partly covering what the government should be providing and is not.
The speculative holding that keeps prices high is also rational behavior in a broken macroeconomic environment.
When inflation runs above 20 percent for years and savings accounts offer negative real returns, property becomes one of the few logical stores of value.
You cannot blame people for being rational when the system gives them no better option.
The diaspora buyer flying in from Manchester or Houston and paying $90,000 cash for a Lekki flat is not the villain either.
They are engaging in arbitrage that exists because of the naira’s collapse and the absence of any government mechanism to ring-fence primary housing demand for local residents.
The real culprits are:
- A mortgage market that has been broken for decades,
- The land title system that is only now being digitized
- Planning and approval process that throttles supply
- The currency has been devalued by 248 percent in two years.
- Developers who don’t build with the intention to justify the price they slap on properties.
Fix those five things, and the conversation looks completely different.
So, is Lagos Overpriced? Here Is My Final Verdict
If you are asking as a dollar-holding investor or a diaspora Nigerian, the honest answer is no. Lagos is not overpriced. It is one of the last genuinely cheap entry points into a major African city, with better growth upside than Johannesburg, cheaper prime pricing than Accra, and mid-market yields that outperform many comparable markets globally.
If you are asking as someone earning in naira, the honest answer is yes.
That’s because the system around the property market has comprehensively failed.
You are being asked to pay near-international prices for property in a city that still cannot guarantee you power, water, or a functional mortgage.
The question now is, what do you think?
